New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick stands on the sideline during an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Monday, Aug. 29, 2022, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis) (Ashley Landis, AP)
A look at the first four games on the Miami Dolphins’ schedule makes the regular-season opener against the New England Patriots on Sept. 11 look as much like a must-win as can be for a team in Week 1.
With a trip to Baltimore, where the Dolphins historically struggle, a home game against the Super Bowl favorite Bills and a road game at Cincinnati on a short week to face the reigning AFC champion Bengals to follow, Miami better handle its business against New England when the season kicks off at Hard Rock Stadium.
Especially since, if the Bills figure to run away with the AFC East again, the Dolphins will need to secure No. 2 in the division over the Patriots if they want to reach the postseason in a competitive AFC.
Hosting Buffalo and New England in South Florida’s heat and humidity in September, Miami has games in Orchard Park and Foxborough late in the year as part of another daunting stretch that is preceded by the two-game West Coast swing at the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers and has a Christmas home game against the Green Bay Packers sprinkled in.
With how many playoff-caliber teams are in the conference, it’s vital the Dolphins finish ahead of the Patriots in the division. New England ended up a game ahead of Miami in 2021, despite getting swept by the Dolphins, and that was the difference for a playoff berth.
On paper, the Dolphins should be better than the Patriots. Frankly, the rosters don’t compare.
Miami returns its defense that anchored the team the second half of last season and completely revamped its offense around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, adding wide receiver Tyreek Hill, left tackle Terron Armstead and running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert.
The Patriots’ biggest offseason move was trading for a Dolphins castoff in wide receiver DeVante Parker, who we know in Miami is capable when healthy. But it was an underwhelming offseason in New England when he was the top acquisition and second is between safety Jabrill Peppers off a partially torn ACL, linebacker Mack Wilson or the questioned first-round draft pick of Chattanooga guard Cole Strange.
Then, you also have to factor that the Patriots lost cornerback J.C. Jackson and offensive linemen Shaq Mason and Ted Karras. Quarterback Mac Jones, albeit a Pro Bowl selection as a rookie after the Bills’ Josh Allen and Ravens’ Lamar Jackson opted out of the game, has to be considered at least on comparable footing as Tagovailoa until one takes his next stride to distance himself, and Tagovailoa now has the help around him.
Where New England is always dangerous is that it still has Bill Belichick coaching this team. He usually gets the most out of his roster and has something up his sleeve. But even Belichick is making odd moves of late, like going without an offensive coordinator this season while it’s widely reported that Matt Patricia, back as Belichick assistant after a failed head coaching tenure with the Detroit Lions, will work his offense.
Elsewhere in the conference, the entire AFC West will compete for playoff spots. The Kansas City Chiefs, despite trading Hill to the Dolphins, should remain a force. The Los Angeles Chargers are on an upward trajectory under quarterback Justin Herbert, an already-electric offense and defense that added Jackson and pass rusher Khalil Mack. The Las Vegas Raiders, off a playoff appearance, gave quarterback Derek Carr a top receiver in Davante Adams. And the Denver Broncos combine a stout defense with quarterback Russell Wilson, over from the Seattle Seahawks.
In the AFC North, the Bengals shored up the offensive line in front of quarterback Joe Burrow, coming off a Super Bowl appearance in his second season. The Baltimore Ravens are one of the conference’s most well-rounded teams and should be eager to bounce back after being greatly affected by injuries in 2021. The Cleveland Browns acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson in the offseason, but he’ll be suspended for the first 11 games, which likely takes them out of the picture. And the Pittsburgh Steelers, even as they transition after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, can never be counted out under coach Mike Tomlin. Whoever finishes second in the AFC South between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans will also be in the mix for a wild card spot.
That’s a lot of teams vying for three playoff spots after the four division winners.
While the Dolphins are improved, it would be difficult to envision them rising to the point of catching Buffalo in the division. The Bills added edge rusher Von Miller to a defense that was already tops in the NFL and still have Allen throwing the ball around to receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox.
The New York Jets could be an upstart team in years to come. The draft picks of cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, defensive end Jermaine Johnson and running back Breece Hall could lead to a promising future if quarterback Zach Wilson develops, but the Jets will likely still finish last in the AFC East.
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Originally published at Tribune News Service