Professional gamblers have two rules: Never bet on a loser because you think his luck will change; never bet on a “sure thing.”
In today’s deal, North’s jump to 2NT was “Unusual,” promising length in both minor suits. North would rarely have a strong hand; he would usually have a hand suitable for a sacrifice, with playing tricks but not great high-card strength. The actual North hand was a flimsy example.
South did well to bid only five diamonds — a more typical North hand such as 5,8,KQ642,KJ10764 would have made six diamonds a good contract — and South must have been surprised, and perhaps tempted to redouble, when he was doubled at five.
West leads the king of hearts, and South appears to have three unavoidable losers: a heart and the top trumps. If he takes the ace of hearts and tries to discard his heart loser on a high club in dummy, East will ruff with his low trump.
Down one looks like a sure thing. Would you bet on the defense?
When East ruffs the third high club, South overruffs. He takes the ace of spades, ruffs a spade and leads a fourth club. East discards; if he ruffs with the ace, declarer discards his heart loser. South ruffs, ruffs another spade and leads the good fifth club. If East ruffs with the ace, South discards a heart and loses only to West’s king of trumps. So East discards again, and South gets rid of his losing heart.
West ruffs with his low trump and tries to cash the queen of hearts, but South ruffs and leads a trump, and when the king and ace fall together, South is home.
Never bet on a sure thing.
West dealer
E-W vulnerable
NORTH
S 5
H J 8
D Q 9 6 4 2
C K Q 10 7 3
WEST
S K J
H K Q 9 4 2
D K 3
C J 8 6 2
EAST
S Q 7 4 3 2
H 7 6 5 3
D A 5
C 5 4
SOUTH
S A 10 9 8 6
H A 10
D J 10 8 7
C A 9
West North East South
1 H 2 NT 3 H 5 D
Dbl All Pass
Opening lead — H K
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Originally published at Frank Stewart