California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative, Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
With the approaching midterm election likely to pose little challenge to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s re-election bid, political experts are watching for signs of what could be a more exciting race – a potential presidential bid from California’s governor. But how would his track record as chief executive in the Golden State play on the national stage?
We asked three experts to weigh in on the biggest policy peaks and potholes along Newsom’s potential path to the White House. There are plenty of things the governor can brag about from his four years leading California, including the state’s robust economy. But there is also fodder for attack ads by his opponents, such as the homelessness crisis that continues to worsen despite the governor’s efforts.
Here are some of the issues sure to play a big role in any Newsom for president campaign.
The economy
California’s $308 billion budget included a massive surplus this year – at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic had cast a shadow over the entire country’s finances – allowing Newsom to spread that money around while also saving for a rainy day. During the pandemic, he’s given money back to Californians in the form of stimulus checks and a recent tax refund – facts he’s sure to point out when challengers talk about inflation and high gas prices.
“One thing they’ve done really well is manage the budget,” Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan said of Newsom’s administration. But there are “clouds on the horizon” in the form of a potential recession, which could change the narrative, he said.
Newsom also opposed Proposition 30, a ballot measure that would fund incentives for electric cars by taxing the richest Californians. That could help him counter claims that he’s just a “tax and spend” Democrat, said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College. But the move also has clean-energy advocates and progressives accusing him of kowtowing to California’s wealthy.
The governor said he didn’t want to give California’s millionaires any reason to leave. It’s not a baseless fear: A recent census report – which shows median income in the Bay Area has dropped – suggests wealthy residents already are moving out of the region. And more than half of Bay Area residents say they’re likely to move away in the next few years, citing housing costs, quality of life and taxes as complaints, according to a recent poll by this news organization.
Housing and homelessness
Newsom set aside an unprecedented amount of money and launched several new solutions to address the affordable housing and homelessness crises. But he’s fallen far short of his initial building goals, and both housing prices and homelessness have soared since he’s been in office.
The governor signed a slate of controversial bills designed to boost housing production – including Senate Bill 9, which allows up to four units on most lots. He launched a new accountability unit designed to penalize cities that fail to plan for enough housing. He poured $14 billion into services, shelter and housing for homeless Californians. He sheltered more than 60,000 unhoused people in hotel rooms under Project Roomkey, and doled out funding to turn hotels, dorms and other buildings into 12,500 units of homeless housing via Homekey. This past week, he said he’ll withhold $1 billion in funding until cities and counties come up with more ambitious plans to reduce homelessness.
Newsom has done far more on this issue than any California governor before him, said Jim Wunderman, president and CEO of the Bay Area Council.
“Will it be enough?” he asked. “It depends when he runs. If things are allowed to develop for a few years, I suspect we’ll start seeing some improvements. But if we’re talking about 2024, maybe not so much.”
While campaigning for governor, Newsom set a goal of building 3.5 million homes by 2025. He’s since walked back from that, calling it a stretch goal. Since Newsom took office in 2019, just 452,000 units have been approved throughout the state, according to the Construction Industry Research Board, which tracks building permits.
In the five-county Bay Area, homelessness has increased an estimated 10% since Newsom took office, and the evidence is everywhere, in shantytowns on vacant land and road medians, and in RVs lining city streets.
“The problem of housing insecurity is severe and does not seem to be improving,” Michelson said. “It’d be hard to point to any huge success here for the governor.”
Abortion and more
Newsom has a long history of backing progressive policies, dating back nearly 20 years when he authorized gay marriages as San Francisco’s mayor before the right to same-sex marriage was the law of the land. When he became governor, he halted executions in the state almost as soon as he took office. And after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade this year, Newsom positioned himself as a champion of abortion rights – taking steps to help out-of-state residents access care in California, backing a ballot measure to enshrine the right in the state constitution, and taking to the national stage to criticize Republicans who are outlawing abortion in their states.
All of that will give him points among the nation’s progressives. But he’ll also have to push back against claims that he’s too liberal. Some pundits suspect that’s why he vetoed a bill earlier this year that would have allowed San Francisco, Oakland and Los Angeles to open safe drug consumption sites aimed at preventing overdoses.
Crime
Smash-and-grab burglaries and open-air drug use have fueled calls for a crackdown on crime. Newsom’s opponents point a finger at Prop. 47, the 2014 ballot measure – which Newsom backed as Lt. Governor – that reduced penalties for some nonviolent crimes.
In a recent debate against Sen. Brian Dahle, Newsom defended Prop. 47 and said California’s felony crime rate is average compared to the rest of the country.
While violent and property crime increased in California last year, both remained relatively low, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. Rates dropped from a peak of 1,115 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 1992, to 466 violent crimes per 100,000 residents last year. Even so, crime remains at the forefront of voters’ concerns.
The environment
“Climate change is real y’all,” Newsom proclaimed in a news release announcing his approval of this year’s budget, which includes nearly $54 billion to attack greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the environment, including money for forest thinning and prescribed burns to fight wildfires. He’s ordered that new cars must be zero-emission by 2035. And he’s signed legislation he says will cut air pollution by 60% over two decades.
But as the state grapples with an ongoing drought, Newsom has shied away from issuing mandatory cuts in water usage with fines for agencies that fall short — unlike former Gov. Jerry Brown. Instead, Newsom has required most cities to limit outdoor watering, while also encouraging people to cut back voluntarily. That’s not working quite as well as the governor had hoped. As of August, California’s urban residents had cut water usage by 10.5% compared to 2020 – short of Newsom’s 15% goal, but an improvement from prior months.
Originally published at Marisa Kendall