Giants pitcher Carlos Carlos Rodón reacts after striking out the Phillies' Bryson Stott in the sixth inning of a game on Sept. 4, 2022. (JOSE CARLOS FAJARDO, BAY AREA NE)
A quiet start to the offseason set up an important winter meetings for the Chicago Cubs.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vowed to be aggressive in upgrading a 74-88 roster. But the Cubs’ moves ultimately will determine whether the organization flexes its financial flexibility.
As major-league teams’ personnel arrived in San Diego ahead of the offseason’s marquee gathering, which runs through Wednesday, the Cubs have an opportunity to take advantage of a division that appears devoid of much competition.
The Cubs are expected to increase spending from their 2022 payroll of $151,054,737, according to Spotrac, which ranked 14th in the majors. They have a ways to go to surpass that with $124,310,000 currently on the books for 2023, according to Cot’s Contracts; that includes $22 million owed to Jason Heyward, who was released last month.
Those payroll figures leave the Cubs plenty of room to acquire the type of impactful talent they need to build on last offseason’s main additions of Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman.
But will the Cubs be serious spenders? It’s one question, among others, that looms this week at the winter meetings.
1. Can they lock down one of the top free-agent shortstops?
The most obvious way the Cubs can infuse talent is through signing one of the standout free-agent shortstops.
One came off the board Monday afternoon when the Philadelphia Phillies signed Trea Turner to a deal reportedly worth $300 million over 11 years.
To what extent the Cubs are willing to commit future financial resources likely will guide whom they most aggressively pursue among Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Correa and Bogaerts offer the most consistent offensive track records and star power, while Swanson’s defense and potentially being the least costly option make him attractive.
Bogaerts, 30, and Swanson, 28, have emerged as the focus of the Cubs’ interest. Bogaerts’ offensive production — 133 OPS+ over the last five seasons with the Boston Red Sox — would provide an immediate boost to the lineup.
Swanson presents a bigger defensive upgrade; pairing him with Nico Hoerner at second base could create a strong pairing up the middle. Although Swanson has posted an OPS+ of more than 100 only twice in his last six seasons with the Atlanta Braves, the Cubs believe they would be able to tap into more production from his bat.
The Cubs can’t afford to whiff on acquiring a dynamic star hitter. They have so many holes to fill that addressing all of the weaknesses will take multiple offseasons. The process began last year, and the front office has plenty of work ahead.
The free-agent shortstop class presents a test for whether the Cubs are willing to spend big bucks in a market that already has shown a pricey cost on the starting pitching side.
2. How do the Cubs address center field?
Tapping into external options remains an avenue for the Cubs at center field.
Injuries to top center-field prospects Brennen Davis (stress reaction in his back) and Alexander Canario (surgery on left ankle and left shoulder) created uncertainty as to how much the Cubs can realistically expect to rely on them next year. Canario faces a lengthy rehab process. Davis’ lingering back problems are concerning.
Cody Bellinger, the 2019 National League MVP for the Los Angeles Dodgers, is an intriguing reclamation project and potential short-term option. Bellinger doesn’t turn 28 until July and provides stellar defense despite posting a .193/.256/.355 slash line and 64 OPS+ in 900 plate appearances over the last two years. Whichever team signs Bellinger must believe he is willing and able to implement the swing and approach changes necessary to get him back on track.
Improving in center field was a focus for Hoyer and the Cubs after the season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the real deal after starring at High-A South Bend. But the previous two months also served as a reminder of how quickly long-term plans can go awry if injuries afflict top prospects. The Cubs ideally don’t want to block Crow-Armstrong, but prospects are just prospects until they reach the majors and produce.
If the Cubs extend left fielder Ian Happ, they would have the corner outfield spots locked in for the next few years, leaving a balancing act for how they acquire an outside upgrade in center while maintaining some outfield flexibility.
3. Where do the Cubs find pitching upgrades?
The starting pitching market has ramped up in the past week, both on a bigger and smaller scale.
Jacob deGrom became the first top-tier starter to sign, inking a five-year, $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers. Justin Verlander replaced deGrom in New York on Monday, reportedly agreeing with the Mets to a two-year, $86 million deal with a vesting option for a third year.
Zach Eflin (three years, $40 million with the Tampa Bay Rays), Matthew Boyd (one year, $10 million with the Detroit Tigers), Mike Clevinger (one year, $12 million with the White Sox) and Kyle Gibson (one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles) also found new homes.
The Cubs need to supplement their rotation. Should they opt to stay away from the high-end cost Carlos Rodón, in particular, is expected to command, the market is poised to be robust with options to add depth and upside. That might not sound exciting for Cubs fans supporting a team that could use a top starter to pair with Stroman.
The Cubs must find reliable pitchers, for both the rotation and the bullpen, that go beyond potential trade-deadline flip pieces.
Starting pitching injuries decimated the Cubs early in the 2022 season. They need to avoid that scenario in 2023. It will require them to engage in a free-agent market that to this point hasn’t exactly been cheap for the middle- to lower-tier choices.
With their payroll room, that should not be a hindrance to bolstering the pitching staff.
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Originally published at Tribune News Service