Texas running back Bijan Robinson is hit by Baylor linebacker Dillon Doyle on a run during the first half of a game on Nov. 25, 2022. (Eric Gay, AP)
10 thoughts after spending three days at the Senior Bowl, the event that really gets draft season rolling — and a significant time this year for the Chicago Bears.
1. Had a little stroll down the street late Tuesday with a general manager for a team with a top-10 pick.
After a little small talk and catching up, I asked if he believes the Bears will seek to trade the No. 1 pick.
“Oh, yeah,” he replied. “Why not?”
The natural follow-up question was if he believes the scouting process over the next 12 weeks will lead one or more teams to deem a quarterback prospect worthy of the high price Bears general manager Ryan Poles surely would demand.
“There are 12 teams that need a quarterback,” he said, implying need and a limited supply could drive a deal as much as the grade on the quarterback in question.
The number of teams in the hunt for a quarterback is subjective, but his figure sounded about right. And then early Wednesday, Tom Brady posted a video of himself sitting on the beach announcing his second, and presumably final, retirement. If there was any question whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a quarterback, there isn’t any longer. Kyle Trask is their only quarterback under contract for 2023.
At least seven teams have a clear and pressing need. I will order them not based on level of need (desperation?) but on where they are picking in Round 1:
- No. 2: Houston Texans
- No. 4: Indianapolis Colts
- No. 7: Las Vegas Raiders
- No. 9: Carolina Panthers
- No. 13: New York Jets
- No. 16: Washington Commanders
- No. 19: Buccaneers
Three teams have quarterbacks who most assume will receive new contracts to return: the Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson), New York Giants (Daniel Jones) and Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith). If any of those quarterbacks changes teams, his old team would join the above list.
The Atlanta Falcons, picking eighth, have an interesting situation. Do they want to give Desmond Ridder a season to see how he performs?
Some wonder if the Tennessee Titans will part with Ryan Tannehill. They were hesitant to play Malik Willis at the end of the season. They could land on the needy list in a hurry.
The New Orleans Saints are stretched to the limit by the salary cap and have Jameis Winston under contract, but he had a poor season.
Do the Green Bay Packers pivot to Jordan Love in the event they trade Aaron Rodgers?
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Jimmy Garoppolo leaves San Francisco. Are the 49ers comfortable with Trey Lance or Brock Purdy?
Some forecast a huge amount of quarterback turnover last offseason, and it didn’t quite reach predicted levels. A lot of moves will be made in the coming months. It’s mighty cloudy when speculating whom Poles could partner with for a trade.
Sure, it’s easy to play connect-the-dots with the Texans and Colts. They have massive need at quarterback and are selecting in the top four. The Colts seem less inclined to go the veteran route after rolling through Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
Poles needs multiple options to maximize a potential return. The next meaningful steps will be movement by veteran quarterbacks. Some of these teams will be out of the mix for a trade as they acquire experienced starters.
That’s when we will be able to whittle a list of potential trade partners and narrow the speculation as the question lingers: Will the Bears be looking to sell the No. 1 pick?
Why not, right?
2. One of the most frequent questions I get is who should the Bears choose: Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter?
You can have either/or discussions now, but my first reaction is that free agency likely will remove some needs and accentuate others more than a month before the draft. It’s also a complicated question if the Bears do like so many predict (hope?) and trade down below the Texans at No. 2.
Let’s say the Bears spend big money to sign a three-technique defensive tackle in March. I don’t think that removes Carter from consideration, but drafting a player at that position could be viewed as repetitive even if the team believes the two tackles could line up next to one another.
The Bears did that once upon a time, using first- and second-round picks on Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson in 2004. The roster at that time was in better shape than the current one. There weren’t as many holes on the depth chart, certainly not on defense.
I think there’s a good chance Dre’Mont Jones reaches the open market. He had 6½ sacks for the Denver Broncos this season but wasn’t nearly as productive after Bradley Chubb was traded away. Jones would be an ideal fit as a three-technique, according to one veteran personnel man, and that’s the kind of player the Bears need to target in free agency for major expenditures. They need to find guys coming out of their rookie contracts and entering their prime years.
It’s unclear what will happen with Daron Payne in Washington, another intriguing option for the Bears and many other teams. If the Commanders don’t use a tag on Payne, he’s also a good bet to reach free agency. Zach Allen of the Arizona Cardinals is also interesting, but he’s probably not in the same class as Payne or Jones. The more options the better because bidding will be robust for quality, proven linemen, and plenty of teams will have enough cap space to be involved.
If you’re stuck on the question of Anderson or Carter, instinct tells me a disruptive interior player is more difficult to find. That doesn’t mean premier edge rushers are bountiful, but athletic guys on the interior with the quickness to defeat offensive linemen and the brawn to handle the punishment that comes with the position are a rare breed. This holds true for this draft class. There is ample depth with the edge rushers.
We first have to see what free agency brings the Bears to have a better picture of position needs on the draft board we all imagine Poles and his staff assembling.
3. P.J. Fleck’s good fortune helped John Michael Schmitz realize a dream.
Fleck left Western Michigan after the 2016 season, and Schmitz, a Homewood-Flossmoor senior, was temporarily uncertain what it meant for his future. He dreamed of playing Big Ten football but had committed to Western Michigan before Fleck jumped from the MAC to take over at Minnesota.
“I was an underrated recruit,” Schmitz said. “Coach Fleck took the job at Minnesota, and two weeks before national signing day, he gave me a text like, ‘Hey, don’t worry, I am going to give you a call tomorrow and we’ll figure everything out.’”
Fleck wound up offering Schmitz a scholarship to play for the Golden Gophers, and he committed without even visiting the campus.
“I trusted the vision he had going for him and believed him,” Schmitz said. “I followed him. It was a lot of trust.”
Schmitz, one of the top center prospects in the draft, might stand as the greatest example of Fleck’s vision and mentality at Minnesota. He redshirted in 2017 and then played for five seasons, starting 25 games over the last two years and 35 total.
While some might have questioned whether Schmitz was big enough to compete in the Big Ten coming out of high school, he long ago answered those questions and now is getting strong reviews from scouts for his footwork, mobility and toughness. It has been a long journey for the six-year college player, now 24, with a lot of lessons learned along the way.
“Just understanding you’re going to fail, especially early on in your career,” Schmitz said. “You’re going to fail every day. If you’re not failing every day, you’re not pushing yourself hard enough. The culture they created there, the mindset they use to develop their athletes, the bond with my teammates was special.”
That bond was so tight that Schmitz spent several weeks contemplating his future after the 2021 season. He considered entering the draft, and Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy admitted he was a little surprised Schmitz, who is on the American roster this week, wasn’t in last year’s game.
“He’s here now,” Nagy said. “He’s played a lot of football. He’s really tough. Smart. Dependable. Everything NFL offensive line coaches are looking for in that position, he’s got, and he’s played at a high level. I think he’s going to start at center for a long time. He’s got a lot to like.”
So why did Schmitz remain in school?
“I stayed because of my teammates,” he said. “I felt like there was more on the table. I wanted to accomplish more at the University of Minnesota, one last chance to go get a shot at Indy (for the Big Ten championship game). It was a hard decision.”
Naturally, NFL teams have asked Schmitz the same question. He has told them the same thing. It resonates too.
“That’s a good thing,” a player personnel director told me. “You can hang your hat on that. Maybe it’s a level of maturity and toughness that he wants to be around his teammates. That speaks well for his leadership and mentality. He’s got that row-the-boat mentality. He’s one of those guys. I don’t think he was going to get better this year. Maybe he just liked life in Minnesota.”
Schmitz believes he did improve this past season, enhancing his stock for the draft. Most believe he will be a Day 2 selection.
“You’re talking about my football knowledge, I feel like my toughness, the way I get out in space, just developing those little things,” said Schmitz, who grew up following the Bears and was a fan of Roberto Garza. “Footwork, hand placement. Everything. You always can get better.”
How does the player personnel director size up Schmitz?
“He’s a good player,” he said. “I have a couple centers ahead of him. He checks a lot of boxes you want to see. You have to be smart and you have to be able to call out protections. He’s tough, gritty — those are all things that you need when you have some physical limitations.
“He’s not an elite athlete. He’s doesn’t have elite strength. But he’s got compensating factors, and I think he’s going to be a solid pro.”
Not only can Luke Getsy get some insight on Schmitz this week, but Getsy worked with Fleck at Western Michigan for a season — and current Gophers offensive line coach Brian Callahan, a Gordon Tech product, was also on that staff. Callahan was a line coach at Akron when Getsy played there, so connections run deep. It will be easy for the Bears to learn everything they want about Schmitz.
4. You can make a case the Bears don’t have a more experienced coach than new cornerbacks coach/defensive passing game coordinator Jon Hoke.
Hoke was hired Wednesday for his second stint with the team after working under Lovie Smith and Marc Trestman from 2009-14. The Bears had 111 interceptions during Hoke’s six seasons, the fourth-highest total in the NFL in that span.
There isn’t a better example of Hoke’s value as a position coach than former Bears cornerback Tim Jennings, who joined the team as a free agent in 2010 after four seasons in Indianapolis. Jennings had a league-high nine interceptions in 2012, the first of two years he was named to the Pro Bowl. He had an up-and-down four years with the Colts but reached new heights when he arrived at Halas Hall.
“Without a doubt my career definitely took off,” Jennings told me Wednesday night. “I was able to take my play to another level once I got to Chicago and played for Jon Hoke. He’s definitely hard on the guys, which is something I needed at the time in my career.
“He brings an old-school tradition to defensive football about being accountable, making tackles, being physical, and one thing I admire about him is he taught me the whole defense. What do the safeties do? What are the linemen doing? Teaching me what the linebackers do.
“So I was able to learn the entire defense and he really taught me how to break down film and then study tendencies of opponents. He just helped me take my game to another level off the field, in the meeting room, and on the field he held me accountable for being physical and being where you’re supposed to be. He coaches hard, and from my experience he gets the best out of guys.”
As a veteran, Jennings had a scouting report on Hoke when he got to the Bears. He found out the report wasn’t accurate or Hoke had transformed after working for the Texans from 2002-08.
“When I got to Chicago, I used to hear stories about Jon Hoke when he was at Houston and how he was a hard-nosed guy who yelled and cussed at guys,” Jennings said. “I got a little bit of that, but the growth that he had when he got to Chicago and dealing with guys like Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman and Brian Urlacher, you know, he wasn’t that guy anymore.
“He did his teaching in different ways. He didn’t have to yell or cuss you out, and I was expecting that. He told me that’s how he was in Houston but he had grown a lot. We were able to laugh and joke about that. He wasn’t that anymore.”
Jennings, who trains defensive backs on the side and works as a secondary coach at Denmark High School in Alpharetta, Ga., remains close with Hoke. He attended Falcons games with Hoke’s family the last two seasons when Hoke worked for the team. He believes that Hoke will make a difference for the Bears and that Matt Eberflus found a position coach with experience running a similar scheme under Smith.
5. It was interesting to hear Luke Getsy talk about offensive line play this week.
He’s coaching the American roster and he’ll be able to lend insight on players he worked with directly as the Bears sort out what they need to do up front. Help could come via free agency. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they pursue a high-profile right tackle. They also likely want to add a draft pick or two, a year after spending four Day 3 picks on offensive linemen.
“We had (fifth-round pick) Braxton (Jones) go in there right away from a smaller school (Southern Utah), and you got to see him last year dive in,” Getsy said. “You get to see the raw athlete (at the Senior Bowl), but the speed and the change of direction that they see on the other side of the line of scrimmage at our level is nothing that even the guys here in the SEC, they don’t see it.
“I was just joking about it on the sideline. I said, ‘We have the best of the best here, but you can tell it’s not the game that we play every Sunday.’”
Before the season ended, I asked offensive line coach Chris Morgan about how the Bears approached the evaluation process. How directly involved was he in the process that led to decisions? Some regimes and organizations work differently.
“It was a really cool partnership last year between our scouting department and our coaches,” Morgan said. “It’s nice to be in a place where your opinion is valued, your opinion is respected. So that part is really cool. We had a good time. We worked really hard. Learned about each other in the process last year, and this staff is awesome.
“We all go in-depth. Whether it’s evaluations, whether it’s studying, whether it’s back and forth, why it’s this guy or that guy. There are a lot of building blocks that have been laid. A lot of foundation that has been laid. We do have an identity. We do have toughness. It is cool to see the run game go as well as it’s gone. There are a lot of positives to look through and build on. Pass pro? One hundred percent we have to be better.”
6. Choices for the Bears in terms of defensive players at the top of the draft need to run deeper than Will Anderson and Jalen Carter.
I am putting them in alphabetical order, not ranking them. This is especially true if the Bears trade down, and while it has been quick and easy to sort of fixate on the two SEC players, the Bears most certainly have been getting a comprehensive look at all players in what is still a relatively early stage of analysis.
One of the biggest — and in some instances the biggest — pieces of information will come at the scouting combine, which starts at the end of the month, when teams can gather medical information that can shape a prospect’s status in a major way.
A handful of guys could be impact defensive players not named Anderson or Carter worthy of a look. I wrote about Georgia Tech’s Keion White. He’s a raw defensive lineman who has done well this week. He could land in the first round. Where? It’s a little early to say.
Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson, who opted out of the game, could be a top-10 pick. He’s 6-foot-6, 275 pounds and has great length and power and a high motor. He’s still a little raw and was a bit of a late bloomer for the Red Raiders but looks the part.
Clemson defensive end Myles Murphy is an underclassman who will garner considerable attention at the combine. He is 6-6, 275, and some are forecasting he will run a sub 4.6-second 40-yard dash in Indianapolis. He’s going to put up some eye-popping test numbers and had 13½ sacks over the last two seasons for the Tigers.
One thing the three prospects have in common that is important when thinking about the Bears’ needs and how Matt Eberflus profiles defensive players: They all have excellent length and are terrific athletes.
7. Running back might be the deepest position, and it’s going to be a very good class with Texas’ Bijan Robinson the best of the bunch.
Factor that with an incredibly deep group of running backs in free agency — a cluster David Montgomery is part of — and any team seeking a back will have a wealth of options. The Las Vegas Raiders could put the franchise tag on Josh Jacobs, and the New York Giants are probably the favorite to re-sign Saquon Barkley. I think some running backs with considerable NFL production will wait to see what happens, though. This is a buyers’ market, so teams might wait to get a player at their price in free agency or might be inclined to wait until the draft.
Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh is a versatile back and has looked good here. Illinois’ Chase Brown looks like he belongs. Some question how much he can contribute in the passing game, but he can work on that. I wondered how big Tulane’s Tyjae Spears would be. He measured nearly 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds and he can fly. Spears should turn heads when he runs at the combine.
Brown has been training in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for the combine, really working on ensuring he can run his best 40 in Indianapolis. There is a science to being a technically proficient runner, and he’s working on the start, middle and end. The chance to train for the event with his twin, Sydney, the Illinois safety, has been everything you would imagine. Sydney Brown has had a good week of practice matching against receivers in one-on-one drills.
“This is probably the last time we will be together throughout a training process, so the fact that I am able to do it with him here at the Senior Bowl, it’s such a prestigious level, it’s surreal,” Chase Brown said. “We are truly blessed.”
The Bears need to get a running back at some point. Whether they re-sign Montgomery, add another free agent or dip into the draft, we’ll wait and see. It has become popular for teams to mine the final rounds of the draft for talent at the position. Seventeen of the 23 running backs drafted last year were from Rounds 4-7. Teams know they can wait and get a quality back. The Bears picked up Khalil Herbert in the sixth round in 2021. Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco was a seventh-round pick. The Texans (Dameon Pierce, Round 4) and Falcons (Tyler Allgeier, Round 5) made terrific Day 3 finds.
8. Auburn’s Derick Hall is another edge rusher who has had a pretty good week.
He measured almost 6-3, 252 pounds and is probably a Day 2 pick. Hall had 15½ sacks over the last two seasons and is an intriguing guy.
“He’s not a first rounder,” one national scout said. “He’s a little bit stiff. He’s really active. He’s really, really naturally strong. Plays with really good leverage. Got good instincts. Is he a special pass rusher? No. Is he a good pass rusher? Yes. He would play left end for the Bears and he is probably better as a left end than he would be as an outside linebacker even though he can drop. He’s just a little bit stiff as an athlete. Great kid.
“He knows how to long arm a tackle. He’s a little bit stiff at the top of the rush because he’s a little bit hip stiff and angle stiff. I think he’s a Day 2 pick. He’s going to wow some people with the interview. He acts like a man. Trains like a man. If he tests well, somebody could go for him in Round 1. I just don’t know how deep it is. If I were looking at him, I wouldn’t take him until the back end of the second or top of the third. He’s kind of like a Rob Ninkovich. He’s going to play for a long time, and you’re going to look up and he’s going to have eight or nine sacks a year and you’re going to hate to play against him.”
9. Luke Getsy said many times during the season that the Bears practiced the 2-minute drill more than any team he worked with previously.
Guess what? Getsy’s American squad has spent a lot more time working on its two-minute drill than the National team in practices this week.
That makes sense. The Senior Bowl has some different rules, including a two-minute warning at the end of each quarter, meaning a possession does not carry over from the first to second quarter or third to fourth. Each team gets two timeouts per quarter, and there is no carryover for timeouts. Getsy said he wanted to ensure his quarterbacks — TCU’s Max Duggan, Houston’s Clayton Tune and Shepherd’s Tyson Bagent — got ample work at it.
10. Houston wide receiver Tank Dell can absolutely scoot.
He has been difficult to cover for all defensive backs. But Dell measured 5-8⅜ and 163 pounds. The NFL is a big man’s game, so he’s a little difficult to project. … Bowling Green defensive tackle Karl Brooks had a really impressive practice Tuesday. He was more middle of the road Wednesday. He’s a three technique who profiles as a midround pick. … Northwestern defensive tackle Adetomiwa Adebawore put together a solid week. He went against Peter Skoronski and Rashawn Slater in practice daily throughout his career in Evanston. That is good NFL training right there. … The Senior Bowl lost only two players it invited to the East-West Shrine Bowl: Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers and Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker.
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Originally published at Tribune News Service