Colorado coach Tad Boyle, center, talks to players during the first half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Eastern Washington on Wednesday, Dec. 8, 2021, in Boulder, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
In what might be viewed as a gigantic upset given the sinking multi-year trajectory, the Pac-12’s outlook for the 2023-24 season improved substantially during the barrage of offseason roster maneuverings.
The top of the conference looks far stronger than it did six weeks ago, when NBA Draft decisions and transfer portal moves were in their infancy.
At this point, it’s far easier to envision at least four teams contending for the regular-season title and advancing to the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
While additional roster moves are inevitable over the coming weeks, they will likely be sporadic. Rotations are approaching final form.
Our revised projections for the conference race …
1. USC
The Trojans solidified their frontrunner status with a stellar spring in which DJ Rodman joined the program from Washington State and five-star recruit Bronny James offered a hard commitment. Add that duo to a rotation featuring all-conference returnee Boogie Ellis and guard Isaiah Collier, the nation’s No. 1 recruit — not to mention several long-armed defenders — and the end result is arguably the strongest overall roster of the Andy Enfield era. But with LeBron James’ son comes the inevitable circus. Navigating the distractions will be Enfield’s greatest challenge. Previous: 1
2. Arizona
As expected, the Wildcats made quality use of the transfer portal to reinforce a roster that lost top scorer Azuolas Tubelis. The most recent portal acquisition, guard Caleb Love (from North Carolina), generated the most attention, but don’t overlook Keshad Johnson (San Diego State) and Jaden Bradley (Alabama), or the return of veteran Pelle Larson, who withdrew from the NBA Draft. Arizona should be tougher and more athletic than it has been in two years under Tommy Lloyd, which will brighten its prospects for success in the NCAAs. Previous: 3
3. Colorado
On the final day of May, the Buffaloes became a threat for March. Tristan da Silva’s decision to withdraw from the NBA Draft gave CU the final piece needed to contend for the Pac-12 title and an NCAA Tournament bid. Combine the versatile forward with returning point guard KJ Simpson, five-star prospect Cody Williams and big man Eddie Lampkin, a transfer from TCU, and the Buffaloes have their best core in years — better, even, than the McKinley Wright-led group that reached the second round of the NCAAs in 2021. Previous: 4
4. UCLA
The Bruins received two pieces of good news last week when Adem Bona withdrew from the draft and Ilane Fibleuil, a touted wing from France, signed his scholarship paperwork. But all the additions to Mick Cronin’s roster don’t begin to offset the losses — none of the newcomers, for instance, are considered one-and-done talents — as the Bruins seemingly have lost ground relative to their crosstown competition. Even if we account for Cronin’s superb coaching and player development, the Bruins don’t look like a favorite, at least not yet. Previous: 2
5. Utah
The Hotline upgraded the Utes’ outlook following Branden Carlson’s unsurprising decision to return for next season. The 7-foot forward serves as the required centerpiece for Utah to continue its progress under third-year coach Craig Smith. But Carlson will need help in order for the Utes to ascend to the conference’s top tier. If they don’t improve the offensive efficiency (No. 129 nationally) and the 3-point shooting (33.2 percent), the results won’t change. Notable newcomers include guards Cole Bajema (Washington) and Deivon Smith (Georgia Tech). Previous: 6
6. Oregon
Dana Altman has once again remade his roster, and the individual pieces are impressive. The Ducks added three recruits who rate among the top-10 players nationally at their positions. They signed three impact transfers (Georgia’s Kario Oquendo, ASU’s Devan Cambridge and Central Michigan’s Jesse Zarzuela). And they retained big man N’Faly Dante. But after two disappointing seasons in which Altman was unable to craft cohesive units, we are slightly skeptical that the whole will equal the parts. Previous: 5
7. Arizona State
Name tags once again will be necessary for the Sun Devils, who lost four of the top-five scorers from last season’s 23-win team but will have clarity at the head of the bench: Coach Bobby Hurley received a (well-deserved) two-year contract extension this spring. As of now, the roster features eight newcomers, six of them transfers. We expect at least two, Adam Miller (LSU) and Kamari Lands (Louisville), to play key roles next season. Guard Frankie Collins withdrew from the draft, which should help with continuity. Previous: 7
8. Washington
The pied-piper nature of the transfer portal was in action this offseason as the Huskies landed a transfer from Kentucky for the second-consecutive season: Last spring, it was forward Keion Brooks; this spring, guard Sahvir Wheeler arrived from Lexington. If Wheeler matches Brooks’ impact, UW might improve its position in the standings. That said, we see limited upside. There’s good reason to doubt coach Mike Hopkins’ ability to conjure a well-functioning offense, regardless of the personnel. Too often, UW is too easy to defend. Previous: 8
9. Stanford
Once again, the Cardinal has signed a highly-coveted national recruit — in fact, it landed two of them: forward Andrej Stojakovic and guard Kanaan Carlyle are top-10 players at their positions. Are they enough, when combined with returnee Spencer Jones and Providence transfer Jared Bynum, to propel the program out of its eternal state of stagnation? Count us as skeptical. Coach Jerod Haase hasn’t finished above .500 in conference play since 2018, his second season, and roster management has only gotten more difficult since then. Previous 10
10. Washington State
The heavy attrition in Pullman is reason to wonder if coach Kyle Smith’s momentum has stalled permanently. He did well to land blue-chip prospect Rueben Chinyelu from Basketball Africa, lured guard Joseph Yesufu from Kansas and just received a commitment from three-star prospect Spencer Mahoney. But the influx does not come close to matching the exodus, leaving the Cougars in a difficult spot with so many middle-of-the-pack competitors either holding their ground or making notable roster upgrades. Previous: 9
11. Cal
Mark Madsen has done as well as could be expected — no, check that: far beyond what could have been expected — in his first few months on the job, with some help from the administration: The Bears have acquired five transfers (five!), and several are contenders for starting positions. (Two of the newcomers, Jaylon Tyson and Fardaws Aimaq, averaged double figures for Texas Tech last season.) But our broader view remains the same: The upgrades required to turn Cal into a respectable program cannot be completed in one offseason. Previous: 11
12. Oregon State
Not much has changed for the Beavers since the Hotline’s original projections. That’s good, because talented guard Jordan Pope remains on the roster, and bad, because needed upgrades have not emerged from the transfer portal. Although OSU was young last season, most of the losses came in blowout fashion — it’s not like the Beavers were a handful of baskets away from being .500. We can’t envision the returnees improving enough for the program to escape its downward trajectory. The spring of 2021 feels so long ago. Previous: 12
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Originally published at Jon Wilner