VTA's new 48-foot-wide tunnel design (right) enables side-by-side tracks for BART's extension into San Jose. Previously, a 43-foot-wide tunnel design included stacked station platforms. (VTA/BART)
It’s time to apply the brakes before the San Jose BART extension careens off the track.
Then hire independent experts to evaluate the benefits and costs — and decide whether Santa Clara County’s largest infrastructure project is worth the new $12.2 billion price tag.
In just three years, the cost estimate for the six-mile, four-station, mostly underground extension has more than doubled, and the completion date has been kicked back a decade from 2026 to 2036.
The price of the project — stretching from the Berryessa/North San Jose stop through downtown San Jose and up to Santa Clara — increased from $5.6 billion in 2020 to $6.9 billion later that year, $9.1 billion in 2021, $9.3 billion in 2022 and then the $12.2 billion this past week.
It’s time for a fresh look at the project and alternatives that might provide mass transit or other environmentally friendly commuter options more cost-effectively. Perhaps the extension will still prove to be a wise investment. Or perhaps not.
Federal, state and county taxpayers all have a financial stake in this project. Elected leaders at each level should demand a truly independent review, as should the local leaders who sit on the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, which oversees the project.
Prior assumptions about rider demand that were used as a justification for the extension should be reexamined. Santa Clara County’s population has declined since 2020; state projections show it won’t recover for another decade and will increase only 10% by 2060. Commute patterns have been upended as more people work from home. Office vacancy rates have reached historic highs. And the massive Google campus planned for San Jose has been placed on indefinite hold.
Consideration should also be given to whether the last leg of the four-station extension — from Diridon Station in San Jose to Santa Clara — should be eliminated. Even respected public transit advocates have complained that section is duplicative of Caltrain service.
At the same time, VTA financial projections should be scrutinized. Not just because the numbers keep changing but also because of VTA’s history of deceit that calls into question whether the agency can now be trusted.
The agency has at different times tried to hide the true cost of the extension from the public, slammed federal estimates and then later conceded they were right, and tried to raid more than its fair share of county sales tax money.
Now, after announcing this past week the latest $2.9 billion cost-estimate increase, authority officials withheld a cost breakdown for the contributing factors.
The transit authority blames escalating construction costs, the new longer projections of the time it will take to build the project, and last year’s decision to increase the size of the tunnel that will house underground tracks and stations.
The last item is particularly perplexing because, when that decision was made to change the tunnel size, VTA officials said it would save money because it would enable side-by-side platforms that would be less complicated to build than the prior plan to stack them vertically.
It’s that sort of public flip-flopping and lack of transparency, combined with the past disingenuous denials about increases, that raise questions about the credibility of the authority’s forecasts and analyses. It’s why independent review is so critical before embarking on this hugely costly taxpayer-funded project.
Similarly, there are troubling questions about how the authority will pay for the project. Last year, when the price tag was estimated at $9.1 billion, VTA was warning that it could be $1.66 billion short. Now, despite the latest $12.2 billion estimate, VTA says it can cover the cost.
Authority officials claim they can get the federal government to cover 49% of the cost — although the feds have not approved the funding. And they claim that they can tap an additional $1.4 billion from the county’s 2016 voter-approved transportation sales tax increase.
That, they say, is based in part on projections of greater sales tax revenues than previously thought. But asked to provide the analysis to support those projections, the transit authority refused, saying the firm that prepared the numbers considers them proprietary. That’s unacceptable secrecy when taxpayers are being asked to fork over billions of dollars.
There are simply too many unanswered questions about the viability of the project and the accuracy and reliability of the authority’s numbers and analysis. As we said in editorials in 2021 and 2022, the San Jose BART extension should be subjected to a complete independent review. After the latest shocking cost increases, that analysis is needed more than ever.
Originally published at Mercury News & East Bay Times Editorial Boards