San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) stands on the field before their NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)
It shouldn’t be surprising that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP this season.
After all, he played a nearly perfect game and out-dueled the previous betting favorite for the award, Jalen Hurts, in Philadelphia on Sunday.
The truth is that with five weeks to play in the regular season, there is no clear-cut top option for MVP. The race remains wide open, with Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, and even rookie C.J. Stroud still in the hunt for the award.
With so many names being bandied about, it’s easy to dismiss Purdy’s candidacy as a fad.
But this isn’t lip service — Purdy can absolutely win the award.
And if he continues the form of the last four weeks, he absolutely should win it.
Because not only is Purdy playing exceptionally well for the NFL’s best team — he’s also playing at a historically high level.
Despite all the indisputable and convincing points made in my Oct. 9 column “The conversation around Brock Purdy must change“, the conversation around Brock Purdy has not, in fact, changed.
He is still considered more of a novelty than the stone-cold killer and elite player he has proven himself to be this season.
There’s one reason for this: He’s Mr. Irrelevant.
If Purdy had been selected with the penultimate pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, No. 261 overall, I don’t think he would be viewed the same way by those who don’t watch every 49ers game.
I don’t think he would be viewed the way he is now if he had been an undrafted free agent, either. (He’d also be making more money.)
If Purdy were the first quarterback selected in that draft, no one would question if he could win MVP this season. By the way, the first quarterback selection in the 2022 draft was Kenny Pickett.
Being the last pick in the draft is undeniably quirky. Football fans know the nickname for it. The status is still in the first paragraph of Purdy’s Wikipedia page.
So when you’re having a casual conversation about Purdy (and make no mistake, even amid NFL personnel and certainly in media circles, there are a lot of causal understandings of Purdy’s game), you’re often dealing with someone anchored to that status as Mr. Irrelevant.
It won’t be until Purdy can supersede the quirk with Pro Bowl, All-Pro or MVP honors, or a Super Bowl berth, that “Mr. Irrelevant” won’t be the first thing people think when they think of Purdy.
Luckily for Brock, he could achieve all four of those benchmarks this season.
Obviously, the 49ers are Super Bowl contenders. And let’s be honest: MVP is a team award given to a quarterback.
But what Purdy is doing this season is generational.
Not only does he lead the NFL in passer rating, QBR, expected points added per play, and completion percentage, but he’s also seventh in passing yards, fourth in touchdowns thrown, fourth in fewest interceptions (among quarterbacks with 350 dropbacks). For the analytics crowd, he has the fourth-best “Big Time Throw” percentage, per Pro Football Focus.
These are MVP numbers.
But this stat blew my mind:
Purdy has averaged 9.6 yards per attempt this season. If that number holds, it’s the second-best mark in the history of the modern game, trailing only Kurt Warner in 2000.
Warner is the other guy with Iowa roots who had a quirky backstory America couldn’t get over.
The same Warner who won a Super Bowl, two MVPs, and is now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame — all things that now sit atop his Wikipedia page. (He’s also a great TV commentator.)
Did Warner have elite teammates? You bet. Like Purdy, he had Hall of Fame-caliber players surrounding him on offense. Warner’s do-it-all running back even won an MVP award during the Rams’ stretch of greatness.
But being the quarterback of The Greatest Show on Turf wasn’t held against Warner — it was why he was named MVP for the first time in 1999.
What has changed? Why is having great teammates a knock for Purdy?
It’s not an issue for his contemporaries.
What MVP candidate comes to mind when I describe a player surrounded by an elite offensive line, arguably the best receiving core in the conference, and a top running back?
I’ll give you a hint: It’s not Purdy.
It’s Hurts. Philadelphia’s offensive line is second-to-none in the league, his top two receivers are both top-10, and running back De’Andre Swift is outstanding.
It could also be Prescott. Even I, a Cowboys hater, can admit that the Dallas offensive line has been great the last two months, CeeDee Lamb is one of the finest receivers in the game, and the Cowboys have four excellent receivers around him. And while running back Tony Pollard has disappointed this year, that’s only because exceptions were so high — he’ll still be a 1,000-yard rusher this season.
Does Purdy have great weapons? Absolutely. You can make an MVP case for Christian McCaffrey. We all saw what Deebo Samuel did on Sunday. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are hardly slouches.
But he doesn’t have an elite offensive line — Trent Williams can’t block four guys at once. And while his offensive play caller is arguably the league’s best, the Niners’ quarterback is anything but a one-read pocket passer — he extends plays with his feat, scans the entire field, and makes something out of nothing far more than Shanahan would like to admit.
And while Purdy did flounder, a bit, without Samuel and Williams in the lineup, if we’re only going to give the MVP award to the quarterback who did the most with the least, then Mahomes or the Colts’ Garner Minshew are the only two “true” candidates.
Get out of here with that.
There are no “system” quarterbacks. In 2023, the quarterback is the system.
Shanahan might be a genius, but this offense doesn’t operate the same way if Purdy isn’t under center. We’ve watched five other quarterbacks play for Shanahan in San Francisco — one, Jimmy Garoppolo was pretty good, but he was never close to being this good.
I’m not saying Purdy is a lock to win MVP. I think a great case can be made for Hill, who could become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history this season. Hurts and Prescott have ample opportunity to bolster their cases — or squander them — down the stretch.
But Purdy is in the mix. He might even be the pacesetter right now.
Forget the backstory and live in the moment. Purdy is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, playing for the NFL’s best team, putting up elite stats and historic numbers.
And if that holds over the next four weeks — especially if he’s the best quarterback on the field during the Niners’ Christmas game with Jackson and the Ravens — we should see a big update to his Wikipedia page.
Originally published at Dieter Kurtenbach