Stanford's Spencer Jones (14) shoots against Arizona during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Pac-12 tournament Thursday, March 10, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
The first NET rankings of the 2023-24 season were revealed Monday. While it’s probably too early for panic across the Pac-12 footprint, it’s a fine time for concern.
For those unfamiliar, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is an important piece of the March Madness selection process. There’s no hard cutoff for making the at-large field, but teams in the top-40 are fairly safe.
The situation will change significantly over the next three months as the NET acquires more results to compute and the rankings better reflect the sport’s true hierarchy.
That change could be for the better, or the worse.
The Pac-12 placed just three teams in the top-40: No. 3 Arizona, No. 28 Washington State and No. 39 Utah.
How does that compare to peer conferences? Poorly.
Top-40 teams by conference:
Big 12: seven
SEC: six
Big Ten: five
Mountain West: five
ACC: four
Big East: four
Pac-12: three
Again, the NET is fluid — the initial rankings are a means of providing context. But with more than 50 percent of the non-conference results accounted for, it’s abundantly clear that the Pac-12 is staring at a suboptimal situation.
(NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Arizona (7-0)
Last week: 1
Results: beat Colgate 82-55
Next up: vs. Wisconsin (Saturday)
NET ranking: No. 3
Comment: From what we’ve seen of their competition, the Wildcats very well could hold this position each week for the rest of the season.
2. UCLA (5-2)
Last week: 2
Results: beat UC Riverside 66-65
Next up: vs. Villanova (Saturday)
NET ranking: No. 103
Comment: How many points is Mick Cronin’s presence on the bench — or in this case, his absence — worth in a given game? Not nearly enough to fully account for a last-second win over the Highlanders.
3. Colorado (6-2)
Last week: 3
Results: lost to Colorado State 88-83, beat Pepperdine 91-66
Next up: vs. Miami (Sunday)
NET ranking: No. 54
Comment: The Buffaloes have a stellar opportunity to collect a marquee victory Sunday against the No. 15 Hurricane. They need one, badly.
4. USC (5-3)
Last week: 4
Results: beat Eastern Washington 106-78, lost to Gonzaga 89-76
Next up: vs. Long Beach State (Sunday)
NET ranking: No. 78
Comment: The backcourt has been as good as advertised, with Boogie Ellis, Isaiah Collier and Kobe Johnson combining for 53 points per game. But the Trojans will only get so far without help from their frontcourt.
5. Oregon (5-2)
Last week: 5
Results: beat Michigan 86-83
Next up: vs. UTEP (Saturday)
NET ranking: No. 82
Comment: This isn’t football. Michigan has dropped four of its past five, including an eight-point loss to Long Beach State. For this result to bolster Oregon’s resume, the Wolverines need to get much better very quickly.
6. Arizona State (5-2)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Sam Houston 78-61 and San Francisco 72-61
Next up: vs. SMU (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 99
Comment: While the Hotline hasn’t confirmed this with Bobby Hurley, our years of experience in sports journalism suggests an 11-point win over San Francisco is more satisfying than a 37-point loss.
7. Utah (5-2)
Last week: 6
Results: beat Hawaii 79-66
Next up: vs. Southern Utah (Tuesday)
NET ranking: No. 39
Comment: With BYU lurking this weekend, the Utes are facing a trap-game situation against SUU. Fortunately for them, the trap has no teeth.
8. Washington (4-3)
Last week: 8
Results: lost to Colorado State 86-81
Next up: vs. Montana State (Tuesday)
NET ranking: No. 64
Comment: Colorado State would be the second-best team in the Pac-12. Just sayin’.
9. Washington State (6-1)
Last week: 9
Results: beat Portland State 71-61
Next up: vs. UC Riverside (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 28
Comment: The Cougars have feasted on cupcakes thus far, indicating their NET ranking will tumble once the losses mount. Granted, that point could be a few weeks away. But don’t be fooled by the ranking or record. There isn’t much substance, yet.
10. Cal (3-5)
Last week: 12
Results: beat Santa Clara 84-69
Next up: at Butler (Saturday)
NET ranking: No. 251
Comment: A 15-point victory over Santa Clara, which beat Oregon and Stanford, was not on our 2023-24 Cal basketball bingo card. It might be the most surprising non-conference result — in a positive fashion — the Bears have produced since the pandemic.
11. Stanford (4-4)
Last week: 10
Results: beat San Diego 88-64
Next up: vs. Idaho (Dec. 17)
NET ranking: No. 211
Comment: The Hotline isn’t prepared to declare the Cardinal’s NCAA hopes dead in the water, but — given that NET ranking — we’re mighty close. And there are still three weeks until Christmas.
12. Oregon State (5-3)
Last week: 11
Results: beat UC Davis 71-59 and Cal Poly 70-63 (OT)
Next up: vs. Utah Valley (Saturday)
NET ranking: No. 226
Comment: The coming array of creampuffs suggests the Beavers should be 8-3 when conference play begins. Of course, anything’s possible with OSU, which beat Troy by a single point and needed double overtime to fend off Cal Poly.
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Originally published at Jon Wilner