Cy the Cynic disdains playing the percentages; he would rather rely on his instincts. Cy says that 38.6 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Cy was declarer at today’s six clubs. A spade lead would have beaten him for sure, but West led the ten of diamonds. Cy took dummy’s ace and drew trumps. Needing a spade discard from dummy, he next cashed the A-K of hearts and led a third heart. West won with the jack and led the high eight, and the Cynic ruffed in dummy but had to lose a spade. Down one.
“I had a feeling that hearts were breaking 3-3,” Cy said.
SUCCESS
Cy’s instincts were indistinct this time. He had only about a 40 percent chance of success. Cy must instead attack the hearts by leading low to dummy’s nine.
East wins and returns a spade, and Cy takes the ace and leads a second heart to the ten. He cashes the king, ruffs a diamond, pitches dummy’s last spade on the ace of hearts and ruffs his last spade in dummy. His chances are about 75 percent.
DAILY QUESTION
You hold: S Q 10 7 6 4 H Q 7 D K Q 6 5 C 7 6. Your partner opens one heart, you respond one spade, he bids two diamonds and you raise to three diamonds. Partner then bids three hearts. What do you say?
ANSWER: Partner suggests six hearts and four diamonds. If had a minimum hand, with which he would reject your game invitation, he would have rebid two hearts at his second turn to limit his strength. His three hearts is forcing. Bid four hearts.
South dealer
N-S vulnerable
NORTH
S J 5
H K 10 9
D A J 7 4
C Q 4 3 2
WEST
S K 8 3 2
H J 8 4 2
D 10 9 8 2
C 5
EAST
S Q 10 7 6 4
H Q 7
D K Q 6 5
C 7 6
SOUTH
S A 9
H A 6 5 3
D 3
C A K J 10 9 8
South West North East
1 C Pass 1 D Pass
1 H Pass 3 C Pass
6 C All Pass
Opening lead — D 10
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Originally published at Frank Stewart