49ers wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (left) and Deebo Samuel celebrate a regular-season ending win over the Rams in Los Angeles last season. (Photo by Michael Zagaris) Photograph by Michael Zagaris
You have questions. I have answers.
Let’s dive into the mailbag.
And seeing as it’s early June, our questions today are all about the… 49ers?
What will Aiyuk’s new contract numbers look like? – @Invader49er on X
» First off, I would like to walk back my prediction that Aiyuk and the 49ers will hammer out this deal around the beginning of training camp next month.
No, with the absurd money being given to wide receivers this offseason — their market value keeps rising, yet there’s a seemingly never-ending supply of excellent, young, and cheap receivers entering the league via the draft; sounds like a bubble to me — I’d expect the Aiyuk negotiations to linger deep into training camp. This is going to be more Nick Bosa (signed days before Week 1 in 2023) than Fred Warner (signed in July 2021).
Aiyuk and his representation can reasonably ask for $30 million per season. That’s what the Lions just gave Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Aiyuk certainly deserves to be paid more than Jaylen Waddle, who is set to be paid $28.25 million per year.
The straightforward play is to split the difference — a little more than $29 million a season — and get Aiyuk into training camp.
If only NFL contracts were simple.
The right thing for Aiyuk to do is to not take Waddle and St. Brown’s contracts as boilerplate and ask for something between them.
That’s because both of those receivers were fleeced in their negotiations.
Sure, they received big, fat numbers that made headlines, but looking at those actual contracts, the teams came out on top.
The numbers that truly matter are the fully guaranteed money and the fully guaranteed years.
In both St. Brown and Waddle’s cases, they are only making roughly $35 million in fully guaranteed money. Worse yet for them, both contracts have no guaranteed salary after 2025 — the Dolphins and Lions can get out of these deals with ease after next season.
Aiyuk is guaranteed every penny of roughly $40 million if he does nothing. That’s $14 million in his salary for this season — his fifth-year option — and roughly $25 million should the Niners franchise tag him for 2025.
Add another franchise tag ($30 million the second time around), and you have three years, at just about $70 million fully guaranteed.
Aiyuk should not accept anything less than that in a new deal.
Of course, the deal that truly messed up the wide receiver market was Justin Jefferson’s four-year, $140 million ($89 million fully guaranteed) contract. But even that deal can be jettisoned after 2026 — Jefferson’s age-27 season.
So let’s split the difference again and give the Niners the flexibility they want.
And let me (finally) give you the straightforward answer to your question, too:
Five years (with a sixth-year void), $145 million, with $80 million fully guaranteed.
In your column on McCaffrey’s new deal, you didn’t mention Samuel’s age in 2025, but you did note a potential trade to the AFC.
In your view, where is Samuel likely to land? – Greg in Sunnyvale
» There’s a long time between now and the post-2024 offseason, so don’t hold me to this — there are far too many dominoes to fall this fall.
All that said… I do think the Niners would again try to move Samuel to the AFC.
The formula for a team that needs a Samuel is pretty straightforward: they lack a game-breaking receiver and feel they’re on the precipice of something big. And seeing as Samuel would likely want a new contract upon arriving at his next destination, it’d probably help if that team had salary cap space — or, more specifically, a quarterback on a cheap contract. (The Niners will jettison Samuel because of Brock Purdy’s new, massive contract, which, when signed, will kick in for 2026 and eat up as much as 25 percent of the team’s salary cap.)
Three teams fit the bill right now. I’d imagine one of them will still be serious about trading for Samuel after this season:
• Colts
• Titans
• Broncos
Toss in the Steelers (always looking for a game-breaker, cheap quarterbacks) and the Chargers ($50 million in cap space for 2025, per OverTheCap, and a head coach you know would love to have Deebo) and I think the Niners will have options.
Moving him to an NFC team (the New York Giants, perhaps?) isn’t out of the question, either. The Niners won’t be selling high, but they need to get something back for a player this excellent. If the maximum return comes from someone in the NFC, so be it.
As for what Deebo would land — six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen was just acquired for a fourth-round pick.
I’d like to think Deebo could net a Day 2 pick next offseason. We’ll see how he plays and if he can stay healthy.
And, for reference, this upcoming season is Samuel’s age-28 campaign.
Seeing as he’s often used like a running back, that’s downright geriatric. The Niners will be wise to get out while they can. They’re hoping they’ll celebrate a Super Bowl win between now and then.
Originally published at Dieter Kurtenbach