From left, LA County Assistant Fire Chief Drew Smith, former Vice President Kamala Harris and LA County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath tour the Palisades burn area in Pacific Palisades on Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025. (Photo by Drew A. Kelley, Press-Telegram/SCNG)
Irish playwright Samuel Beckett’s tragicomedy “Waiting for Godot” centers on two men, Vladimir and Estragon, who hope, in vain, that the arrival of a mysterious man named Godot will bring meaning to their otherwise miserable lives.
It’s considered to be a perfect example of Europe’s post-World War fascination with what was termed the “theater of the absurd.” That’s why it leaps to mind when one considers the dynamics of the ever-growing cadre of Democratic candidates for governor in 2026.
As their numbers expand, they are waiting for former Vice President Kamala Harris to tell the world whether she will try to keep her political career alive by seeking the governorship.
Harris is apparently willing, ala Godot, to keep them waiting. Politico has reported that a month ago, at a pre-Oscars party, she told supporters that she won’t declare her intentions until late summer.
The uncertainty about her intentions affects what other hopefuls can do in the interim, such as raising campaign money. The big Democratic spenders, such as unions, the entertainment industry and Silicon Valley, are also waiting, leery about making commitments to other candidates until Harris decides.
It’s also evident that the lesser candidates, those little known and lacking deep-pocket support, such as former state Senate leader Toni Atkins, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former state Controller Betty Yee, would probably drop out if Harris runs.
But how about those who, in the absence of Harris, would be credible aspirants, such as Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Congressmember Katie Porter and, most recently, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra?
Kounalakis and Porter have dropped hints that they would defer to Harris, but Villaraigosa has indicated he would still run and Becerra, in announcing his candidacy this week, declared he’s in it to stay.
The state’s top-two primary system plays a significant role in how the field eventually forms. Although polls indicate that Harris would be the frontrunner in the June primary, another Democrat could hope to finish second and thereby qualify for a runoff in November in which Republican and independent voters could be decisive.
However, a crowded Democratic field that would fragment Democratic primary voters would also increase the likelihood that a Republican, such as Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, would finish second.
That situation, as past elections have shown, gives the Democratic nominee a huge advantage to win the governorship, given the state’s lopsided Democratic voter registration.
We saw that scenario last year when Congressmember Adam Schiff indirectly helped Republican Steve Garvey finish second in the primary duel for a U.S. Senate seat, freezing out Katie Porter. It could happen to her again next year, were she to remain in the gubernatorial race and the Harris campaign emulates Schiff’s tactic to help Bianco or some other Republican finish second.
A runoff between Harris and another Democrat could be a test of her campaign ability in the wake of stumbling badly in her 2019 bid for the presidency and again last year after being tapped by Democratic leaders to take on Donald Trump after they forced Joe Biden out of a re-election bid.
California’s voters have been in a restive mood of late, concerned about ever-rising living costs, especially for housing, the state’s seemingly intractable homelessness crisis and crime. Last year’s passage of Proposition 36, a measure to crack down on criminals, despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democratic leaders, is one indication of voters’ sour mood.
A Democratic candidate who exploits that angst and appeals to Republican and independent voters could mount a serious campaign against Harris — should she decide to run.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.
Originally published at Dan Walters