Bands perform on the field before the Holiday Bowl NCAA football game between North Carolina and Oregon Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2022, in San Diego. The organization that runs the Holiday Bowl is suing the Pac-12 Conference and the University of California Regents because UCLA backed out of the 2021 game due to COVID-19 concerns. The San Diego Bowl Game Association is seeking a minimum payment of $3 million in compensatory damages in the lawsuit filed Wednesday, May 31, 2023 in California Superior Court in San Diego County. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy, File)
The Pac-12 dissolved 14 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
With one Saturday remaining in the season’s first half, allow the Hotline to remind fans of a critical component to the Pac-12 bowl selection procedure.
Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant. Teams that finish 9-3, for example, would have priority over teams that finish 8-4.
But there’s a catch. Bowl officials have the option to use the one-win-down rule: They can pass over Team X in favor of Team Y as long as there is no more than a one-win difference in overall record.
If Utah finishes 9-3 — just to name one possible scenario — the Alamo Bowl could pass on the Utes in favor of USC if the Trojans are 8-4.
That policy holds throughout the lineup (except for the College Football Playoff, which has its own selection process).
When might bowl officials make use of the one-win-down rule?
— To avoid repeat participants. The Sun Bowl, for instance, doesn’t want Washington for a second consecutive year.
— Also, bowls are wary of teams with interim head coaches and teams that lose star players to the transfer portal or NFL Draft.
Those factors aren’t always evident on bowl selection day, which is Dec. 7 this season. But they will be accounted for to the greatest extent possible.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: Penn State’s epic fail against UCLA has, admittedly, given us pause in pronouncing Oregon (5-0) as the co-favorite in the Big Ten, along with Ohio State. Fortunately, we’ll have near-complete clarity on the situation after the Ducks host Indiana on Saturday afternoon.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: We view the Sun Devils (4-1) as one of three teams with an open road to nine wins — Utah and Washington are the others — but there’s one key difference: ASU has never participated in the Alamo, whereas the Utes and Huskies have been to San Antonio within the past six years.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The victory at Maryland was significant on several fronts, including how it impacts UW’s bowl math. If the Huskies (4-1) win the games they should win (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, UCLA and Rutgers), they will get to 9-3 and secure a spot in one of the top-tier bowls.
Holiday Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: There are just two games remaining that we feel comfortable putting in the “should win” category for the Trojans (4-1) given their knack for blowing leads on the road and the uncertain nature of the Crosstown Showdown with UCLA.
Sun Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: The next two weeks, with Arizona State visiting Salt Lake City and the Holy War in Provo, will define the rest of the season for the Utes (4-1). They will be favored in most, if not every game after the mid-October double whammy.
LA Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: It would take a near-complete collapse for the Wildcats (4-1) to miss the postseason — they merely need two wins in the final seven games to secure a berth. Three of those look daunting: BYU (home), Cincinnati (road) and ASU (road). The other four are toss-ups, at worst.
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The warning lights are flashing red in Berkeley. In their past three games, the Bears (4-2) were embarrassed at San Diego State, snuck past Boston College, which just lost to Pittsburgh 48-7, and got walloped by Duke. At this rate, the postseason can hardly be considered a lock.
ESPN bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: We’re giving the Cougars (3-2) the benefit of the doubt with their bowl math, in part because they face Oregon State twice. But a split with the Beavers would cut the likelihood of a bowl bid in half, from 50.01 percent to 25.005 percent.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: As quickly as the Buffaloes (2-4) rose from dreadful to relevant, they could slide from relevant back to dreadful. Add the issues with Deion Sanders’ health, and the final two months might very well feel like two years.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Firing special teams coordinator Jamie Christian this week only places more scrutiny on Trent Bray’s management of the program: Either you make the change when it was obvious a change was necessary (i.e., weeks ago) or you don’t make the change at all. It’s not like Bray waited for a bye week. The Beavers (0-6) play Wake Forest on Saturday.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: On the bright side, the Cardinal (2-3) are nowhere near the bottom of the Power Four. Oklahoma State, North Carolina, West Virginia and Boston College are clearly worse, and Colorado probably fits within that collection, as well.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: Our assessment of the Bruins (1-4) prior to the season pegged them for four or five wins — they were never as bad as they looked under DeShaun Foster. Interim coach Tim Skipper, to his credit, has unlocked the door to that talent. We expect a few more wins, but not five more. The hole is too deep.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Originally published at Jon Wilner