UCLA guard Charisma Osborne (20) drives the ball against Oregon guard Maddie Scherr during an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 women's tournament Thursday, March 3, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)
More often than not, when Stanford wins the Pac-12’s regular-season title it doubles up as conference tournament champion.
The Cardinal has accomplished that feat 12 times in the tournament’s 22-year history and is a slim favorite to do so again this week in the Pac-12’s final collective hurrah.
But last season, neither Stanford nor Utah, the regular season co-champions, even reached the title game. Instead, there were a tournament record seven upsets (based on seed), with No. 7 Washington State prevailing for its first conference title of any sort.
The unpredictability foreshadowed a disappointing NCAA Tournament for the Pac-12 as Washington State lost in the first round and Stanford fell at home in the second. Utah, UCLA and Colorado reached the Sweet 16 before losing, leaving the conference without a Final Four participant for the first time since 2018.
What’s on the line in Las Vegas this week?
Colorado is hoping to win enough games to secure a host assignment for the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, while WSU, Arizona and Washington are attempting to lock down at-large bids.
Stanford, UCLA, USC and likely Oregon State are already well positioned to host NCAA games no matter how the Pac-12 tournament plays out.
Here is the Hotline’s forecast for four days at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
(All times Pacific. All games will be televised by the Pac-12 Networks except the championship, which is on ESPN.)
Opening round (Wednesday)
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 12 Oregon (12 p.m.)
Comment: As bad as things are going for the Buffs, who are 1-5 in their last six games, it’s hard to imagine them falling to Oregon, which is on a school record, 13-game losing streak. Plus, four of Colorado’s recent losses were to nationally-ranked teams. CU is 2-0 against Oregon and crushed the Ducks 90-57 on Feb. 9. Oregon needs a low-scoring game, like the 61-48 outcome in Eugene on Jan. 28, to have any realistic shot at an upset.
Pick: Colorado
No. 8 Cal vs. No. 9 Washington State (2:30 p.m.)
Comment: Washington State returns to Las Vegas, albeit at a different arena, as the defending champion but with a 3-7 record since losing star guard Charlisse Leger-Walker to a season-ending injury Jan. 28. The Cougars knocked off Colorado on the road Saturday and are capable of avenging two losses to Cal by a combined eight points. WSU is seeking a fourth straight NCAA berth and needs this win to make that happen.
Pick: Washington State
No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 10 Washington (6 p.m.)
Comment: Arizona won a triple-overtime thriller against the Huskies on Feb. 18 after losing by two points in Seattle a month earlier. Washington has won three of its last four. Arizona was on a four-game winning streak, including a victory at Stanford, before going 0-2 last week with a double-overtime loss to USC. A lot will depend on whether the Wildcats, with seven scholarship players, can stay out of foul trouble.
Pick: Arizona.
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 11 Arizona State (8:30 p.m.)
Comment: At a fundamental level, the Utes are as good as their 3-point shooting which, without injured Gianna Kneepkens, can be sketchy. Last week alone, Utah was 11-of-25 from 3-point range in a win over Washington State, then 5-of-27 in a loss to Washington. ASU has improved since losing 58-41 to Utah two months ago but will have trouble stopping Alissa Pili and the perimeter game.
Pick: Utah
Quarterfinals (Thursday)
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 4 Oregon State (12 p.m.)
Comment: Colorado is 0-2 against Oregon State, losing by six points each time with Raegan Beers in the lineup. Beers is back for the Beavers after missing four games due to a broken nose and scored 14 points in her return Saturday. The Buffs haven’t beaten a ranked team since Jan. 21 — and they are 6-7 overall in Quadrant 1 games — while Oregon State, with Beers available, is at close to its best.
Pick: Oregon State
No. 9 Washington State vs. No. 1 Stanford (2:30 p.m.)
Comment: A case can be made that Stanford, which faced just one ranked opponent in the last month, isn’t as tested going into the postseason as the other contenders. What’s more, guard Talana Lepolo sat out two of the last three games due to a knee injury. The Cardinal is 2-0 against Washington State, which could solidify an NCAA berth with an upset that Cardinal stars Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen are likely to prevent.
Pick: Stanford
No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 2 USC (6 p.m.)
Comment: JuJu Watkins had one of her dozen 30-point games (32) against Arizona in an 81-64 victory on Feb. 12. The Wildcats are 4-2 since that point, including their 95-93 double-overtime loss to the Trojans last week (when Watkins scored 20 before fouling out). The difference in the second meeting was Rayah Marshall, who generated 26 points and 11 rebounds.
Pick: USC.
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 3 UCLA (8:30 p.m.)
Comment: It’s hard to come up with a bigger gap between regular-season results than Utah winning 91-84 (in overtime) at home over UCLA on Jan. 22 and losing 82-52 on the road to the Bruins a month later. Again, the 3-point discrepancy was defining for the Utes, who went 13-of-28 in the first meeting and 3-of-15 in the second. Plus 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts was a bigger factor for UCLA at home. Utah figures to stay close, but the Bruins right now are fearsome on defense.
Pick: UCLA
Semifinals (Friday)
No. 4 Oregon State vs. No. 1 Stanford (5 p.m.)
Comment: Provided this Hotline forecast holds up, Oregon State and Stanford will be playing for the second time in eight days with the Beavers hoping the addition of Beers makes the difference from a 67-63 loss on Feb. 29. Stanford also won 65-56 on Jan. 21 when coach Tara VanDerveer became the NCAA’s all-time winningest coach. A mostly chalk tournament through two days takes a twist in this game.
Pick: Oregon State
No. 2 USC vs. No. 3 UCLA (7:30 p.m.)
Comment: Both games in Los Angeles were celebrity-laden sellouts, drawing a combined 24,316 fans for close competition with the home team prevailing. Bringing that show to Las Vegas for a rubber match could create a Sphere-like atmosphere ahead of both teams being NCAA Tournament hosts in the same season for the first time since 1992. The teams last played Jan. 14 — an eight-point USC victory — and much has happened since then. Watkins’ matchup with UCLA star Charisma Osborne is admission-worthy alone.
Pick: UCLA
Championship (Sunday)
No. 4 Oregon State vs. No. 3 UCLA (2 p.m.)
Comment: Yes, we’re on a bit of a limb predicting the top-two seeds won’t reach this nationally televised showcase. But it’s far from a stretch given how strong the Pac-12 has been this season and given what happened last year with the No. 5 and 7 seeds meeting in the final. UCLA and Oregon State split the season series with the Beavers winning most recently. Their 79-77 victory on Feb. 16 was arguably the best game of the regular season and featured four lead changes in the final 10 seconds. Oh, for another such finish.
Pick: UCLA
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Originally published at Jeff Metcalfe